Is this the beginning of the end for Andy Flower's England?

Defeat in the first Test was a surprise and a disappointment, but the reaction was extreme. One result could not reverse two-and-a-half years of consistent success. Of course rival fans will have plenty to say and schadenfreude abounded but you can't win 'em all.

Looking at the thing rationally, a second reverse should not change the equation. The facts remain that England are world number one on merit and only South Africa have a reasonable counter claim. Better sides than this England outfit have had a ropey record in Asia.

And it is unfair to say that England are simply good at home after recording a series win in Australia as emphatic as any by an away side in the modern Ashes. This should still be a team in the early stages of a long period of sustained success; a long period of sustained success is not the same thing as being infallible.

But the manner of the second Test defeat in Abu Dhabi does give pause for thought. You cannot fail to chase 145 - falling more or less at the halfway stage - too often before your credibility goes down the pan. This is something that works in progress, not champions, are guilty of.

The easy thing to do is pick out Eoin Morgan, never fully convincing in his whites for England and desperate in this series. But Morgan is the seventh best Test batsman in this team and the astonishing thing has been the performance of more senior players.

Ian Bell, who had mastered Test cricket over the last 18 months, has been all at sea. Andrew Strauss' batting is suffering for being captain, while Kevin Pietersen, despite a couple of huge scores, has not really been the same since they took the armband off him.

Parachuting in Ravi Bopara (or James Taylor, or Samit Patel) for Morgan will not make the difference this week or next season. Four of the top six have failed to pass 32 in four attempts apiece in this series, a record that would raise eyebrows during England's many low points never mind as world number one.

It is this collective failure that is the most troubling. This was never going to be an easy series but few would have imagined that England under pressure would offer no serious resistance.

Defeat in the third Test suddenly looks a frightening prospect. Assuming they can avoid further humiliation in the UAE then a return to winning ways at home to the West Indies is basically guaranteed followed by the showdown with South Africa. Suddenly that series is even more important to this England team.

With Flower said to want to step down before the next World Cup and Strauss unlikely to last another two years, a failure to beat the Proteas would end a supposed 'era' as the world's best team within the year. The build-up of confidence and momentum for the D'Oliveira Trophy really needs to start in Dubai this week. The third Test may be a dead rubber but it is a chance to win a five-day match under difficult circumstances - England's last such chance before facing South Africa in July.

For Pakistan's part, their own talk of ascent to world number one seems fanciful in this generation. Under a 37-year-old captain with a 36-year-old star batsman, no home cricket in years and some unanswered questions on corruption, the road is long.

But there is no doubt their return to form is brilliant news for the world game. With the last two teams to be ranked number one beaten so comprehensively by those ranked four and five in recent weeks, there are exciting times ahead for the Test game.

Peter May